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The Working Group on Seasonal
to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) under the CLIVAR project oversees
development of improved models, assimilation systems and observing
system requirements for seasonal prediction. Recently, recognizing
the potential to improve seasonal prediction by tapping results and
outputs from all WCRP elements, the JSC established a limited term
Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) which draws on expertise
in all WCRP core projects (i.e. CLIVAR,
GEWEX, CliC and
SPARC), WGNE,
and WGCM. The overarching goal of the TFSP is to determine the extent
to which seasonal prediction is possible and useful in all regions
of the globe with currently available models and data.
The Task Force held a First WCRP Seasonal Prediction workshop (4-6 June 2007 in Barcelona,
Spain) to assess current skills and to further plans for a major cross-WCRP
prediction experiment. The resulting WCRP Seasonal Prediction Position Paper summarises the motivation and outcomes of the workshop, which brought together climate researchers, forecast providers and application experts. The main purposes of the Workshop were to describe the current status and main limitations regarding seasonal forecast skill and applications and to arrive at definitive statements regarding current skill in seasonal prediction with emphasis on surface temperature and rainfall and how the forecasts are currently being used for societal benefit. The report outlines a set of specific recommendations for improving seasonal prediction skill and enhancing the use of seasonal prediction information for applications.
The Workshop focused on addressing two basic overarching questions:
- What factors are limiting our ability to improve seasonal predictions for societal benefit?
- What factors are limiting the application of our seasonal predictions for societal benefit?
In addition to addressing these questions, the Workshop participants developed recommendations spanning both the physical and application sciences for how to overcome these limiting factors. The Workshop participants also developed a roadmap for improving skill and setting priorities on the development and application of dynamical models for seasonal prediction recognizing that this process necessarily requires robust interactions between the physical science and applications communities and a delicate balance between scientific feasibility and application requirements. As described in the Paper, the Workshop participants proposed a process by which progress in seasonal prediction can be regularly and comprehensively assessed.
Download WCRP Seasonal Prediction Position Paper (Feb. 2008, PDF, 900 kB).
Read more about WCRP's
monsoon
research.
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