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Climate Prediction

Climate predictions help farmers to decide what and when to plant, hydrologists to decide when to fill dams, aid workers to decide which medicines to stock and many others to make decisions that reduce risk and improve the quality of life. Improving climate predictions and making them more useful is one of the overarching goals of the WCRP. The Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project with its regional panels and its Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) is central to this effort. A major step forward has been the development of ensemble modelling techniques (ENSEMBLES) that can provide the type of information that is needed for many user applications. Using the best currently available models and data, the WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) draws on the expertise of all WCRP projects to determine the extent to which seasonal prediction is possible, and useful, in all regions of the globe.

The WCRP strategic framework 2005-2015 points to the need for seamless predictions spanning timescales from weeks to decades. WCRP coordinates the efforts of the many WCRP groups involved in improving our understanding of processes and in model improvement with the aim of developing total climate system models that can predict climate on all timescales.

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